As the Toronto Maple Leafs push through the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, one storyline continues to hover over the team like a looming summer storm — Mitch Marner’s next contract. At 27 years old and coming off another standout season, Marner’s case for a major pay raise is gaining steam. But with big money already tied up in stars like Auston Matthews, the Maple Leafs now face a tricky financial decision.
Marner’s Value Has Never Been Higher
Mitch Marner has once again proven himself as a key piece of Toronto’s success. His eight points in six games during the Leafs’ first-round series win over the Ottawa Senators only added to his growing value. It’s not just the offense — coach Craig Berube has praised Marner’s strong two-way play and his ability to thrive in all situations, from the power play to the penalty kill.
Marner’s current deal, which pays him $10.9 million per season, is already among the highest for wingers in the NHL. But that number will likely look small compared to what he could command on his next deal.
Rantanen’s Deal Sets the Market
A useful comparison is Mikko Rantanen’s new contract with the Dallas Stars, which kicks in next season and pays him $12 million annually. Since Texas has no state income tax, that’s worth around $14 million a year in Toronto. If Marner’s camp uses that figure as a benchmark, the Leafs are staring at a potential ask in the $13–14 million range — and for seven or eight years.
Given the rising salary cap (expected to hit $95.5 million next season and $104 million by 2026-27), it’s not unrealistic. But the Leafs have to consider how this would affect the balance of the team.
The Matthews Factor
Here’s where it gets complicated: Auston Matthews, Toronto’s captain and top goal-scorer, is currently the team’s highest-paid player at $13.25 million per season through 2027-28. If the Leafs give Marner a contract worth more than that, it could cause friction within the locker room or at the negotiation table down the line.
Would Marner accept a deal equal to Matthews’? Possibly. But would he settle for less? That’s much harder to predict. And with so many teams likely willing to offer top dollar for a player of Marner’s calibre, Toronto may not have the luxury of low-balling him.
What’s at Stake for the Leafs?
Toronto has long been criticized for having a “top-heavy” roster — with too much salary tied up in a few star players. Adding an even more expensive Marner contract to the books could limit the team’s ability to improve elsewhere, especially in key depth positions or on defense.
If Marner truly wants to stay in Toronto, he might need to accept a little less to help the team remain competitive. But if his goal is to cash in fully, the Leafs might be forced to explore a trade or let him walk in free agency to preserve their salary cap structure.
Waiting Game Continues
Don’t expect this saga to end anytime soon. The Leafs won’t rush into a decision while they’re still in playoff mode, and Marner’s camp knows his value will only grow if Toronto goes deeper into the post-season. Talks are likely to drag well into the off-season, especially if neither side is willing to budge on their financial expectations.
Mitch Marner is going to get a big raise — that much is guaranteed. What remains unknown is whether the Maple Leafs will be the team to give it to him. Balancing star contracts in the NHL’s salary cap era is never easy, and Toronto now finds itself in a high-stakes financial standoff with one of its most important players. Whether the Leafs keep their core intact or make a bold move, fans should brace for an intense off-season ahead.
